Winning against expectation: How Unpredictability in Women’s Tennis Keeps Fans Guessing at Grand Slams

The Australian Open kicks off the New Year in sunny Melbourne, the French Open challenges players on the clay court, Wimbledon upholds its traditions with the signature white dress code, and the US Open dazzles with its famous night matches. These Grand Slams represent the pinnacle of a tennis player’s career and fan engagement. They involve the highest prize money and most ranking points. The competition is fierce from the start with 128 players starting in the draw. However, there can only be one champion.

Winning a grand slam is rare. Even battling to the final and being ranked one of the best players on tour does not secure a Grand Slam victory, especially when facing the opponents Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic on the other side of the net. Alexander Zverev is one of the best ATP players to never have won a Grand Slam title, yet he has won 23 ATP titles and has been in three Grand Slam finals at the US Open, French Open, and Australian Open. Zverev himself has commented on the pain of losing: “I don’t want to end my career as the best player never to win a Grand Slam.” 

Grand Slam tournaments on the men’s tour have been more predictable with Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Sinner dominating the centre court, whereas recently the women’s tour has seen greater unpredictability. Barbora Krejčíková, winner of the women’s Wimbledon in 2024, commented on the nature of Grand Slams: “I like it this way. It’s very unpredictable and I think it’s different. It’s nice that everybody has that potential and can believe they can be the next slam champion.” 

Players play in front of thousands on the court but millions more offcourt. The pressure is high. Tennis is as much a physical game as a psychological game. One of the greatest challenges for players is dealing with nerves on the court . 

Ons Jabeur, seeded number three, cracked under pressure and nerves at the 2022 Wimbledon final, losing against the unseeded player, Markéta Vondroušová. Jabeur led 4-2 in the first set but lost momentum throughout the rest of the match due to many unforced errors. Only the top players are seeded from 1-32 in a Grand Slam, ensuring that the strongest players encounter each other in the later rounds of the tournament. However, Vondroušová’s defeat of several seeded players en route to her victory demonstrated the unpredictability of women’s finals. Perhaps going into a match as an underdog relieves the pressure of being an unseeded player as she was an unexpected winner of the tournament. Jabeur’s defeat at the final was a tough point in her career. Once ranked in the top ten, Jabeur has dealt with persistent shoulder injuries, causing her to drop through the rankings and lose more matches. 

The unpredictability of the sport and the rise of young players only adds to the struggle to stay at the top . Teenage tennis stars rise from being virtually unknown in qualifying matches to causing upset in the main draw. Mirra Andreeva, 17-years-old is among the talented young tennis stars who shot quickly to stardom in 2023 at the French Open, ushering in a new generation of players. At 17-years-old she could still play in Junior Grand Slams but has decided to take the leap and compete in the main draws of Grand Slams. She threatens the existing rankings and players much older than herself. Her maturity and ball-striking exceed the expectations of a player her age. In 2024, while ranked 38th in the world and unseeded, she beat second seed Aryna Sabalenka at the 2024 French Open quarter-finals to reach her maiden slam semi-final. When world number 19 Madison Keys dethroned world number one Sabalenka at the 2025 Australian Open Final to win her maiden Grand Slam, it repeated that same déjàvu moment of underdog players defeating the higher ranked players in career-defining and crucial moments. The Australian Open was full of other surprises, with last year’s finalist Zheng Qinwen losing in the Round of 64. Seeded or unseeded, finalist or winner one year and out in the early rounds in the next year, you can never quite know who will rise or who will fall in women’s tennis. 

Turning ahead to the French Open in May 2025 and Wimbledon, the question of who will win and which unexpected upsets will shake the tournament remains open. The big players to watch out for are Iga Światek, Coco Gauff, and Aryna Sabalenka on the WTA tour. Each of whom have pocketed either one or a few Grand Slams already. Światek, world number two, and known as the ‘Queen of Clay’ for her dominance at Roland Garros has not been able to reproduce the same title at Wimbledon on the grass court. Sabalenka will be eager to prove her number one world status, after losing out at the 2025 Australian Open to Keys. However, with the recent unexpected turns in women's Grand Slam matches and fluctuating WTA rankings, fans will have to keep guessing with each new tournament. 

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